Using Calculus to Model Epidemics Essay -- SARS, MERS, pathology, epide

With the recent scare of a so-called Severe acute respiratory syndrome-like (SARS) virus called Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS – CoV) that so far has unknown origins and has a astounding mortality rate of 47.6% , I began to wonder about the complexities of disease outbreaks and the mathematics behind epidemics. That’s when research led me to realize that it was possible to model epidemics using calculus. As a pathofobiac, I’ve always been intrigued, and scared, of, diseases - constantly reading statistics regarding different diseases, examining how they spread an calculating the chances of any of them ever infecting me or any of my loved ones. So when the opportunity came to do a math exploration, I thought it would be interesting to look into the mathematics behind disease spread. The aim of this exploration is to investigate and examine one epidemic model and then attempt to apply it to a scenario and determine if it’s a realistic and accurate model. The Initial model Although Epidemic modeling depends on a variety of factors, which will be discussed later on (such as the type of disease and its rate of spread) the initial model takes into account the major factors to produce a simplistic model. Firstly, the initial model takes into account the very basic assumptions that are listed below â€Å"1. SIR: All individuals fit into one of the following categories: Susceptible: those who can catch the disease. Infectious: those who can spread the disease. Removed: those who are immune and cannot spread the disease 2. The population is large confined to a well-defined region. You might imagine the population to be a large university during the semester, when relatively little outside travel takes place. 3. The popu... ...culty of The University of Iowa) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). 3 September 2013. 3 September 2013 . Department of Statistics at Columbia University. Introduction to Epidemic Modelling. Unknown Unknown Unknown. 28 August 2013 . KidsHealth. Chickenpox. Unknown Unknown Uknown. 1 September 2013 . Maps of World. Population Mexico (Poblacion de Mexico]). Unknown Unknown Unknown. 2 September 2013 . Mathematics Faculty of The University of Iowa. Using Calculus to Model Epidemics. Unknown Unknown Unknown. 24 August 2013 . Using Calculus to Model Epidemics Essay -- SARS, MERS, pathology, epide With the recent scare of a so-called Severe acute respiratory syndrome-like (SARS) virus called Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS – CoV) that so far has unknown origins and has a astounding mortality rate of 47.6% , I began to wonder about the complexities of disease outbreaks and the mathematics behind epidemics. That’s when research led me to realize that it was possible to model epidemics using calculus. As a pathofobiac, I’ve always been intrigued, and scared, of, diseases - constantly reading statistics regarding different diseases, examining how they spread an calculating the chances of any of them ever infecting me or any of my loved ones. So when the opportunity came to do a math exploration, I thought it would be interesting to look into the mathematics behind disease spread. The aim of this exploration is to investigate and examine one epidemic model and then attempt to apply it to a scenario and determine if it’s a realistic and accurate model. The Initial model Although Epidemic modeling depends on a variety of factors, which will be discussed later on (such as the type of disease and its rate of spread) the initial model takes into account the major factors to produce a simplistic model. Firstly, the initial model takes into account the very basic assumptions that are listed below â€Å"1. SIR: All individuals fit into one of the following categories: Susceptible: those who can catch the disease. Infectious: those who can spread the disease. Removed: those who are immune and cannot spread the disease 2. The population is large confined to a well-defined region. You might imagine the population to be a large university during the semester, when relatively little outside travel takes place. 3. The popu... ...culty of The University of Iowa) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). 3 September 2013. 3 September 2013 . Department of Statistics at Columbia University. Introduction to Epidemic Modelling. Unknown Unknown Unknown. 28 August 2013 . KidsHealth. Chickenpox. Unknown Unknown Uknown. 1 September 2013 . Maps of World. Population Mexico (Poblacion de Mexico]). Unknown Unknown Unknown. 2 September 2013 . Mathematics Faculty of The University of Iowa. Using Calculus to Model Epidemics. Unknown Unknown Unknown. 24 August 2013 .